Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS61 KPHI 031147)


    
    The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
    KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
    
    Overview... Most TAF sites are currently VFR, but this will
    quickly change today as surface low pressure currently over NC
    heads northeast. KACY is already MVFR this morning with more
    sites soon to follow as the low clouds push inland.
    
    KRDG/ KABE...
    For Reading and Allentown precipitation will likely move across
    the terminals between 12 and 15z. Precipitation will briefly
    start out as SN/ IP before quickly transitioning over to FZRA.
    Both NAM and GFS forecast soundings indicate a profile
    indicative of SN/ IP very briefly before dry air in the mid-
    levels quickly unsaturates the DGZ. This equates to a transition
    of FZRA. This initial batch of precipitation will then move
    away from the terminals Saturday afternoon with a break in the
    precipitation likely. This break will be transient though as the
    mid-level disturbance approaches (cigs will remain IFR though).
    The next batch of precipitation will move in from the west
    between 19 and 21z. All of the precipitation will be in the
    liquid form in the afternoon. As the mid- level wave exits late
    this evening precipitation will come to an end, but IFR to sub-
    IFR cigs will remain. Forecast soundings indicate the potential
    for drizzle late tonight into Monday morning. Northeast winds
    around 10 knots initially, backing to the northwest by Monday
    morning. Medium confidence.
    
    KPHL/ KPNE/ KTTN...
    For PHL, PNE, and TTN precipitation will move across the
    terminals between 12 and 15z. Precipitation will likely be all
    rain for these terminals, but some brief mixing of FZRA and IP
    can't be ruled out (especially at KTTN). For now, confidence
    remains to low to mention in the TAFs. Confidence is also lower
    for these terminals if any break in the precipitation will
    occur. There will likely be a very short break, but the temporal
    duration appears to low to mention in the TAFs at this time.
    Precipitation will then continue/ resume in the afternoon and be
    all liquid. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for
    drizzle late tonight into Monday morning. Northeast winds around
    10 knots initially, backing to the northwest by Monday morning.
    Medium confidence.
    
    KACY/ KMIV/ KILG...
    For KACY, KMIV, and KILG precipitation is already starting,
    with all liquid expected close to the coast. VFR cigs will
    collapse to IFR. Steady rain can be expected though the
    afternoon with northeast winds slowly backing from the
    northwest. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for drizzle
    late tonight into Monday morning. High confidence.
    
    Outlook...
    
    Monday...Generally MVFR ceilings. Northwest wind around 10
    knots. Medium to high confidence.
    
    Tuesday...Generally VFR ceilings. Northwest wind around 10
    knots. Medium to high confidence.
    
    Wednesday...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. High
    confidence.
    
    Thursday...VFR. Northwest wind around 10 knots. High
    confidence.

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