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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KMFL 031438)


    
    Fog potential continues for the next few hours, especially for
    KAPF. SHRA chances increase through the day as a front approaches
    the region. Overall, generally VFR conditions prevail, with MVFR
    cigs possible. However, confidence regarding coverage of SHRA and
    impacts for any given airfield are too low at this time to
    mention and will handle with amendments as necessary. Winds
    gradually become S to SW today ahead of the front and W to NW with
    the frontal passage overnight.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 237 AM EST Sun Jan 3 2021)
    
    SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
    A pattern transition day as high pressure gives way to the
    approaching cold front. Even with the impending pattern change,
    South Florida will still see temperatures rising into the lower to
    mid 80s. Rain chances will increase over Southwest Florida and
    the Lake Okeechobee region as the front approaches later today
    into tonight. The mid-level impulse driving the front's progress
    will push northeastward from the Midwest into New England through
    Monday, which will allow the front to move across South Florida on
    Monday.
    
    Instability and moisture remain fairly modest ahead and along the
    front. However, there could end up being coincidence of the peak
    heating, the frontal boundary, and a passing mid-level shortwave
    trough on Monday afternoon which could lead to slightly more
    convection than some of the guidance is depicting. Accordingly,
    added a slight chance of showers mention to the forecast for this
    time period to account for these factors.
    
    LONG TERM (Monday Night through next Sunday)...
    
    Monday Night through Wednesday morning
    
    An upper level disturbance is forecast to eject out towards the
    Atlantic Ocean, with an attendant cold front draped down from the
    Western Atlantic Ocean through the western Carribean region. With
    this front forecast to transverse South Florida, a continental polar
    airmass will be advected over the region. This will cause a drastic
    reduction in temperatures and significantly impede any potential
    storm development as cold, dry air spills in over the region.
    Presently, minimum apparent temperatures are forecast to be in the
    mid/upper 40s over the interior/Gulf coast, and lower/mid 50s over
    the Atlantic metro region. The chilliest temperatures will likely be
    realized Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
    
    Wednesday morning through Thursday
    
    Predominately zonal upper level flow should allow for relatively
    benign weather near the surface. A progressive short-wave ridge is
    forecast to transverse the region, resulting in height rises aloft.
    This will allow for the continental polar airmass to become quickly
    modified and allow for temperatures warm up to seasonable values.
    
    Friday
    
    A lifting trough is forecast to transverse the southeastern United
    States, albeit staying far north of South Florida. A brief period of
    frontogenesis may allow for a moisture to congeal near the surface
    and allow for shower and isolated thunderstorm development Friday.
    As of now, this system does not appear robust due to the unfavorable
    orientation of the associated jet streak. Consequently, a lack of
    instability and deep forcing will likely limit widespread
    development and any associated impacts of concern.
    
    Saturday through Sunday
    
    The aforementioned lifting trough is forecast to quickly progress
    eastward over the Atlantic Ocean, as cooler air spills in from the
    north in the wake of a weak cold front. This should cause a
    reduction in temperatures next weekend, as forecast minimum
    temperatures may drop to the mid 40s (interior) and low/mid 50s
    (coast).
    
    
    Generally VFR though some sub-VFR cigs and vsbys cannot be ruled
    out. APF seems to be most at-risk for sub-VFR with overnight to
    early morning fog development possible. Light and variable winds
    overnight will become southerly to south-southwesterly through the
    period ahead of a cold front. The front will bring increasing
    shower chances.
    
    MARINE...
    A warm air mass over the cooler Gulf waters (in the upper 60s)
    may allow for fog to develop over the waters ahead of a cold
    front. This is something we will have to monitor ahead of the
    frontal passage in case visibilities are reduced to hazardous
    levels for mariners in the Gulf. Increased showers associated with
    the cold front in the Gulf later today and spreading areawide by
    Monday. Wind and seas should remain below advisory criteria in the
    wake of the front, though some cautionary periods are possible.

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