Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KMFL 200058)


    NE wind will diminish to AOB 5 KT overnight then up to
    10 KT Saturday. Occasional CI and some VFR SC; no restrictions
    expected.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    
    THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: Surface high is centered over the
    northern Gulf coast this afternoon, stretching east across the
    Florida peninsula. Low level flow has veered east-northeast,
    allowing the stratocu deck over the Atlantic to advect into the
    coast. Cloud deck isn't deep enough for any significant rain
    chances, though a sprinkle can't be ruled out. Temperatures have
    just peaked in the upper 60s and low 70s, and are expected to fall
    relatively quickly as winds diminish right after sunset. With the
    moderating easterly flow, overnight lows will be 10-15 degrees
    warmer than last night. Temps will drop into the upper 40s and low
    50s over the interior and Gulf coast and upper 50s/around 60
    along the east coast.
    
    THIS WEEKEND: High pressure to our north slides east on Saturday,
    leaving the area under moderate low level easterly flow. Saturday
    looks to initially start out dry, with the threat for Atlantic
    showers increasing by the evening hours as a relatively strong
    upper level shortwave moves east along the Gulf coast.
    
    Models have backed off on the degree of moisture advection from the
    south Saturday night into Sunday as the shortwave crosses the state.
    The result is overall lower rain chances than previously forecast,
    with areas near Lake Okeechobee potentially remaining dry. Current
    forecast will hold coverage to 20-30%, highest over the local
    Atlantic waters.
    
    Highs on Saturday will be in the low-mid 70s, returning on normal on
    Sunday in the mid-upper 70s. Overnight lows will be milder in the
    mid-upper 50s over the NW interior to mid-upper 60s along the coast.
    
    NEXT WEEK: Overall pattern remains progressive for next week as the
    upper level shortwave slides east Sunday night. Next system that
    crosses into the eastern US on Tuesday remains well north, with just
    enough energy to push a very weak front into the peninsula before it
    washes out. High pressure building behind this system across the
    eastern third of the US will lead to breezy northeast flow for mid
    week.
    
    No significant drying is expected, keeping showers in the forecast
    through the period. Breezy onshore flow will keep temperatures near
    normal in the mid-upper 70s, with mild overnight lows ranging from
    the upper 50s over the NW interior to upper 60s along the coast.
    
    MARINE...High pressure to the north will remain in place into early
    next week, leading to moderate east winds at 10-15kts over both the
    Gulf and Atlantic. Flow becomes light and variable on Tuesday as a
    front moves into the peninsula and washes on, with east-northeast
    winds re-establishing behind the boundary mid week.
    
    Seas will continue to subside tonight, remaining around 2ft in the
    Gulf and 3-4ft in the Atlantic. Seas will remain choppy over the
    local Atlantic. There will be a slight chance of showers this
    weekend through early next week.