Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KMFL 231358)


    Ongoing SHRA/TSRA across West Central Florida expected
    to push into area later this morning. Could see isold activity
    before main development, especially vcnty KAPF due to activity over
    Gulf. Best timing for activity anytime after 14Z, with prevailing
    westerly flow favoring east coast sites later in the day. A few
    stronger storms with gust over 35kts are possible. Gusty west winds
    outside of convection 10-15kts from late morning through afternoon.
    Another round of storms could potentially affect KAPF after 00Z.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 346 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018/
    
    DISCUSSION...Closed low over the Ohio valley will continue to
    fill and remain elongated between the developing subtropical ridge
    in the Northwest Atlantic and the large concentric high in the
    desert sw that extends into the Southern Plains. Boundary over
    central Florida ahead of a front will slowly move southward
    continuing to enhance the potential for showers and storms today
    through Wednesday. As this boundary moves further south, the
    chances for some isolated severe storms increase especially over
    the Lake region and Palm Beach County as conditions become more
    favorable for a more active pattern. Storm Prediction Center gives
    a marginal risk of severe weather today for that area. Most of
    the earlier activity has weaken and dissipated across South FL
    early in the evening. However, the latest Hi-res models continue
    to show a second wave of convection moving in from central FL
    overnight into the morning hrs. High temperatures will be in the
    low 90s this afternoon across South Florida.
    
    While the low pressure system dominates our weather pattern the next
    couple of days expect an increase in coverage of showers and storms
    across the region with the some of the storms producing locally
    heavy rainfall, gusty winds and a chance for isolated tornadoes
    around boundary interactions. By mid week, the subtropical ridge
    will build back towards the west returning a more typical summer
    time pattern expected across the region. Although models show
    moisture lingering around the area return to more climo weather.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area in the afternoon
    and evening hours developing along the east coast and pushing
    towards the interior and Gulf coast with sea breeze development.
    
    MARINE...Boundary across Central Florida will gradually settle
    southward today into early next week. This will increase the
    chance of showers and thunderstorms through out the day with some
    becoming strong. Moderate west-southwesterly flow is expected to
    prevail as a result. Seas continue 2 feet or less in the Atlantic
    but expect westerly fetch to increase and build seas up to 3 to 4
    feet today into Tuesday. By mid week, ridge begins to gradually
    build over the peninsula returning a more south to se flow across
    the region. Winds remain less than 15 knots and seas below 2 feet
    through the remainder of the prd.