Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KLSX 241207)


    (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning)
    Issued at 549 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018
    
    Flight categories are going to be a challenge again this morning.
    A persistent band of light to occasionally moderate and heavy rain
    is affecting parts of southeast and east central Missouri as well
    as southern Illinois. The rain has washed out some of the low
    ceilings in its path, with many observations reporting 3,500 ft or
    higher. Not sure how long these VFR ceilings will persist this
    morning, but low MVFR and IFR clouds should build back from the
    south through the morning as the rain ends. Elsewhere, IFR flight
    conditions will continue to prevail this morning...possibly
    lifting to low end MVFR early this afternoon. A strong storm
    system will move through this afternoon and evening, bringing more
    rain and thunderstorms, particularly to areas along and south of
    I-44 in Missouri and I-64 in Illinois. The cold front associated
    with this system will push through during the evening and wind
    will pick up from the west-northwest, potentially gusting to 30kts
    behind the front.
    
    SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
    
    Low confidence forecast for ceilings at Lambert this morning.
    Current VFR clouds could go IFR at almost any moment, but there is
    enough of a hole over the Metro area and points to the southwest
    where it's been raining for several hours tonight. Expect the hole
    to fill at some point in the next 2 to 4 hours...perhaps sooner.
    On the reverse side, visibility should improve after the rain
    ends. The next wave of rain will move into the vicinity of the
    terminal this afternoon. Think there will be more thunder with
    this batch before it ends during the early evening. Cold front
    is expected to pass through the terminal at about 04Z and we could
    see wind gusts from the west-northwest up to around 30kts for a
    few hours.
    
    Carney