Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KLSX 201811)


    (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
    Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018
    
    Primary aviation concern for the next 24 hours is MVFR ceilings
    and potential for IFR late tonight. Latest observations show that
    the stratus has lifted above 2000ft in most locations. Expect this
    lifting trend to continue...though I doubt it will make it above
    3000ft this afternoon. There is an area of cloud-free space over
    the eastern Ozarks and southern Illinois, but it looks like the
    clear slot will fill in over the next few hours from the
    southwest. Ceilings will likely lower during the late evening to
    low MVFR...between 1000-1500ft. Could see IFR ceilings as well as
    MVFR fog before sunrise, but am not confident enough to include
    this in the TAFs at this time. Some light rain or patchy drizzle
    is also possible tonight...primarily across northern Missouri into
    west central Illinois...but the greatest impact to aviation will
    likely be from the aforementioned low clouds.
    
    SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
    
    MVFR flight conditions are expected to prevail at Lambert through
    Sunday. The southern edge of the stratus deck currently over the
    terminal is making some slow progress northward...and it may
    scatter out briefly this afternoon. However, expect more stratus
    to move in from the southwest this afternoon and evening. Model
    guidance is consistent in lowering the ceilings to between
    1000-1500ft late this evening or overnight. There's a chance
    ceilings could go down to IFR and there could be some fog as well,
    but confidence in that scenario is not high at this time. Most
    likely scenario is that the stratus will drop to aforementioned
    levels and stay there into Sunday morning with some lifting
    likely in the afternoon.
    
    Carney