Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
Select Site: 

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KLOT 031141)


    
    For the 12Z TAFs...
    
    Aviation forecast concerns:
    
    * Light snow with patchy LIFR cigs/IFR vis ending early this
    morning.
    
    * Likely improvement to at least low-end MVFR today, but likely
    trending back to IFR toward evening.
    
    * Potential for LIFR conditions to develop tonight with both low
    ceilings and fog.
    
    Weak surface low pressure was tracking to the east-northeast
    across northern IN early this morning, with the trailing edge of
    an area of light snow roughly along a KVYS-KUGN line at 1130Z.
    Light snow, with IFR visibilities should end from northwest to
    southeast across the Chicago metro terminals from 12-15Z. With
    surface winds turning light northwest behind the departing low,
    would expect some improvement in ceilings/vis into MVFR range by
    mid-morning.
    
    Model forecast soundings indicate a substantial low-level
    inversion will remain in place across the area through this TAF
    period however, trapping low level moisture and keeping the
    prospect for renewed IFR ceiling development in play. All model
    guidance indicates such a trend late this afternoon/toward
    evening, with the potential for further lowering into LIFR range
    tonight. Extensive LIFR and VLIFR conditions upstream with locally
    dense fog may portend trends tonight as the weak surface high
    pressure ridge over eastern IA moves east across the terminals.
    Confidence in these trends, even in ceilings during the day today,
    remain rather low however.
    
    Forecast soundings do indicate some rise in the low level
    inversion height mid-late morning Monday, suggesting an
    improvement to MVFR in the later parts of the KORD/KMDW 30 hour
    forecast.
    
    Light northwest surface winds are expected to back more westerly
    later this morning, then settle in a southwest direction later
    this afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period.
    
    Ratzer

Page loaded:  14:52 UTC  |   06:52 AM Pacific  |   07:52 AM Mountain  |   08:52 AM Central  |   09:52 AM Eastern

 

ADVISORIES

FORECASTS

FORECASTS

OBSERVATIONS

USER TOOLS

ABOUT US