Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO


    Ceilings will drive the forecast through the TAF period, and
    trends in guidance and model soundings have began to lower
    ceilings faster in their most recent runs. Expecting MVFR ceilings
    to prevail by sunrise, and IFR ceilings to settle in early Friday
    Additionally, short term guidance has backed off on shower
    coverage associated with the area of low pressure pushing towards
    the upper Texas coast Friday, keeping most of the precipitation
    over the coast and Gulf waters. Have decided to remove VCSH from
    IAH based on these trends, and also limited the time frame for
    possible VCSH at SGR and HOU. Went ahead and slowed the timing for
    shower development beginning to impact the coastal terminals in
    the morning to early afternoon hours, and anticipating showers and
    isolated thunderstorms to dissipate or move offshore by sunset.
    Beginning late Friday into early Saturday, visibilities will begin
    to lower. The most recent run of the SREF has lowered visibilities
    significantly, allowing radiational fog to develop early Friday
    evening into Saturday morning, impacting mainly SGR and CLL. Have
    gone ahead and lowered visibilities to MVFR criteria for these
    two sites. The threat of sea fog will also be a factor along the
    coast, with the potential to lower visibilities and ceilings at
    GLS and LBX early Friday evening.