Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO


    At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR condtions to begin the period with a
    gradual lowering of CIGS thru the day. Guidance has delayed MVFR to
    IFR CIGS until this evening, when cold air damming ramps up and the
    greatest coverage of precip is expected. With the CAD wedge becoming
    entrenched tonight, winds will increase out of the NE and CIGS will
    drop into the IFR range at KCLT aft 03z or so. As usual with CAD,
    KAVL winds will turn out of the SE today thru tonight. Across the
    Upstate, there is less of a chance of precip, so VCSH/Prob30s are
    advertised thru the day. There will likely be a lull in precip
    during the afternoon across the SC sites with CIGS remaining in the
    3500-6000 ft range. All sites should see lower CIGS after sunset.
    Outlook: Elevated precipitation chances and periodic flight
    restrictions will continue throughout the weekend. Cool and dry high
    pressure will build in from the north early next week.
    Confidence Table...
    05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
    KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Med   78%
    KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     High 100%
    KAVL       High 100%     High  94%     Low   36%     Med   78%
    KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Low   55%     Med   64%
    KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link: