Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO


    At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR will prevail over the next few hours, as
    conditions are then expected to gradually deteriorate to MVFR with
    lowering cigs and increasing chances for -SHRA through the early
    morning hours due to increasing low level moisture and isentropic
    lift. After daybreak, the continuation of increasing moisture and
    moist upglide will aid in the further lowering of cigs, with IFR
    anticipated through the rest of the afternoon. However, if the
    insitu wedge weakens any this afternoon, a brief improvement to MVFR
    is possible, especially at KCLT. Otherwise, expect VCSH/-SHRA
    throughout the day, with a potent storm system bringing the
    potential for -TSRA at the SC TAF sites, along with KCLT late this
    evening into the early overnight hours. Lingering low cigs and
    precip are expected into Tuesday, with a mix of MVFR/IFR.
    Outlook: Colder air may wrap south into the region behind the system
    into Tuesday night and early Wednesday, allowing for the potential
    for mixed precipitation. Expect conditions to retreat to VFR on
    Confidence Table...
    08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
    KCLT       High  91%     Med   78%     High  82%     Med   69%
    KGSP       High  94%     High  95%     High  91%     High  94%
    KAVL       High  93%     High  83%     High  98%     High 100%
    KHKY       High  83%     High  98%     High  89%     High  98%
    KGMU       High  85%     High  95%     High  89%     High  98%
    KAND       High  81%     High 100%     High 100%     High  93%
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link: