Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KGSP 241816)


    
    At KCLT and elsewhere: Increasing clouds this afternoon with
    ceilings near 5000 ft, with showers and thunderstorms possible until
    sunset.  Hi-res models are somewhat variable in placement and
    coverage of convection today, but tend to have more coverage in
    eastern areas, including KCLT and KHKY. Westerly winds are a
    little gusty this afternoon as 850mb winds are still 15 to
    20kts, but will relax near sunset Winds are expected to veer to
    become more northwesterly overnight as lee trough moves eastward
    and a week front sags into the area. More showers and
    thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon as a low-level
    disturbance/MCV approaches the region. Fog is expected to be
    limited to mountain valleys Monday morning, with only KAVL being
    worthy of mention at this point.
    
    Outlook: A slow-moving or stalled front will bring better chances
    for convection starting Monday and continuing through the week.
    Patchy morning fog and/or low stratus may increase as well in
    mountain valleys and/or locations with wet ground.
    
    Confidence Table...
    
    18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
    KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  91%
    KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High  91%
    KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link:
    
    www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation