Aviation Forecast Discussions Data
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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS62 KGSP 210715)


    
    At KCLT and elsewhere: The big question will be the development
    of fog in the pre-dawn hours. Satellite imagery shows an expanding
    area of high-based stratocu with cloud bases around 060. This could
    very well inhibit fog development and the guidance has picked up on
    that notion. So, have cut back on fog with this issuance and will
    amend if we manage to clear off. Instead, most sites get a light
    S wind. Still see a good chance of MVFR/IFR vis at KAVL, whereas
    KCLT will be given a temporary MVFR ceiling around daybreak based
    on the stratocu field developing upwind. After sunrise, expect
    VFR conditions for the rest of the period with a S/SW wind. Deep
    convection should be tied to the ridgetops this afternoon, thus
    only a VCSH was included at KAVL.
    
    Outlook: Anticipate diurnal showers and thunderstorms to become more
    widespread this weekend with possible brief restrictions. Otherwise,
    expect VFR conditions with the exception of possible overnight and
    early morning fog focused predominately across the mountain valleys.
    
    Confidence Table...
    
    07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
    KCLT       High  98%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
    KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAVL       High  86%     High  96%     High 100%     High  95%
    KHKY       High  95%     High  82%     High 100%     High 100%
    KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
    
    The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
    with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
    experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
    are available at the following link:
    
    www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation