(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS64 KFWD 240446)
As in the 00Z TAF discussion, main challenges will be timing
in/out of MVFR cigs overnight/early Saturday morning and if a weak
cold FROPA occurs on Saturday afternoon.
I only tweaked a few things based on the latest observations,
satellite, and high-resolution guidance. MVFR cigs will occur at
all but possibly Meacham and Fort Worth Alliance airports
overnight, as surface-925mb winds gradually veer through early
Saturday morning. It appears the 925mb winds will veer enough the
next few hours that Alliance likely will only see scattered, if
any strato-cu, where Meacham will see possible a few hours of it
in the pre-dawn hours, with D/FW, Love Field, and Arlington seeing
MVFR cigs on either side of FL020 mostly during the pre-dawn
hour. Majority of the MVFR cigs will be steered ESE of DFW Metro
airports by 12-13z. In addition, high resolution guidance is now
coming more into an agreement of a weak FROPA across the DFW Metro
in the 18-20z time frame, which will start with light N/NW winds
less than 10 knots, slowly veering around light northeast by
Saturday evening, before return to the southeast overnight as the
weak front shifts back north toward the Red River Valley.
Otherwise, occasionally gusty south winds 15-25 kts will veer
southwesterly and weaken to between 10-15 knots.
Confidence is not very high on exact timing of MVFR cigs shifting
E of DFW Metro airports, along with timing of the weak cold FROPA.
As for Waco Regional, they will begin this TAF cycle with MVFR
cigs on either side of FL020, before becoming low MVFR for several
hours through mid-late morning Saturday. South winds 15-25 knots
will persist through much of the morning hours. Cigs will
gradually lift later Saturday morning and into VFR by midday with
continued south flow.
All airports will see MVFR cigs return by midnight and after early
07:50 UTC |
12:50 AM Pacific |
01:50 AM Mountain |
02:50 AM Central |
03:50 AM Eastern