Aviation Forecasts Discussions (AFD) INFO

(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS63 KDTX 212326)


    Saturation, clouds, fog has developed aggressively over southeastern
    Michigan prior to nightfall immediately on the cool side of a
    surface warm front that is draped across portions of northern Ohio.
    This has led to dense fog at the Detroit terminals. Forecast
    soundings and plan view perspective of some parameters support dense
    fog to remain in place over southeastern Michigan through
    approximately 09Z tonight. At that time, widespread rain is expected
    to lift northward through the area which will support some
    disruption to near surface layer. What is lower confidence is how
    progressive or how far northward the dense fog will make it during
    the early stages of tonight because the warm front will be slow to
    move and some easterly flow may advect some drier air north of metro
    Detroit. Widespread rain is expected to lift from south to north
    between 09-15Z before a dry slot causes low level moisture to strip
    out. The exception will be MBS, where widespread rain is expected
    throughout the day. Have went aggressive with IFR and LIFR
    conditions within the rain tomorrow for KFNT and KMBS. A significant
    dry slot will then be a main influence over aviation weather through
    late Monday night.
    
    For DTW...Dense fog is expected to be in place through approximately
    09Z, when widespread rain will then lift into the terminal.
    Widespread rain 09-16Z transitioning to a period of VFR conditions
    Monday afternoon. A period of showers with some IFR will again be
    possible by Monday evening.
    
    /DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
    
    * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Monday.
    
    * High for visibility less than 1/2 mile tonight.
    
    * High for ceiling 200 feet or less tonight.
    
    * High for rain as precipitation type tonight and Monday.