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(EXTRACTED FROM FXUS64 KBMX 250857)


    
    06Z TAF Discussion.
    
    An active wx pattern will unfold this forecast period as a strong
    upper level short wave trof tracks across Alabama. There will
    likely be two waves of pcpn today, with the second wave containing
    the more active tstms. The first wave of showers and isold TS will
    affect mainly the northern TAF sites as a weakening impulse tracks
    eastward across north Alabama between 12z and 17z. Handled this
    first wave with VCSH and no TS due to stable conds across north
    Alabama this morning. The air mass is very dry ahead of the first
    wave, but low level moisture will quickly increase as the showers
    move into the area, and cigs could temporarily fall to between
    1500 and 2000 feet agl. Cigs will likely rise during the afternoon
    and go above 3000 ft agl. A second wave of pcpn will accompany
    the short wave trof and trigger a line of strong to possibly
    severe tstms. The tstms will likely contain frequent cloud to
    ground lightning, brief periods of heavy rainfall, wind gusts
    above 40 kts, and large hail. For now will only indicate VCTS, but
    in later TAFs show better timing with more prevailing hazardous
    wx conds. The convective wx should end across the the I-20
    corridor by 22z and at KMGM and KTOI between 01z and 02z.
    
    58/rose