1	"Collaborative Convective Forecast Product" Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP)
2	CCFP Overview Weather related delays due to convective activity are the single most disruptive force within the National Airspace System (NAS). CCFP seeks to reduce these disruptions by collaboratively creating a more accurate convective forecast. Participants include the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) forecasters, Center Weather Service Units (CWSU), and airline meteorologists Delay mitigation requires alternative ways to forecast convection on which to base traffic flow management (TFM) decisions. CCFP was developed to provide a single convective forecast for NAS users to coordinate a system-wide approach to severe weather events.
3	CCFP Overview Continued The Aviation Weather Center (AWC) hosts generation of CCFP with input from CWSU and airline meteorologists. CCFP will be generated 12 times a day with two, four, and six hour forecast windows. CCFP will be available via the Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC), AWC, Volpe and Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) websites and digitally via a server at the AWC and ATCSCC websites. CCFP has been embraced by the FAA and the CDM Collaborative Routing group as the cornerstone of NAS operations for severe weather planning. ATA’s Meteorology Committee, the AWC, the National Weather Service (NWS), and the FAA have all supported the evolution of the CCFP.
4	CCFP Goals Reduce weather delays Provide all NAS users, airlines and ATC with common situational awareness of forecast convective weather Support plans for better sector flows Explore the limits of convective forecast techniques and verify their accuracy
5	Goals of the CCFP Continued Develop forecast for TFM decision makers Eliminate the time required for review of weather activity during TFM Telcons Improve AOC/TFM route coordination during severe weather impact Provide opportunity for forecast input by individual NAS stakeholders through their meteorologists
6	CCFP History 1998 – Northwest Airlines, ZMP ARTCC CWSU and AWC initiate collaborative convective forecast 1999 – CCFP run as a test program 2000 – first full operational CCFP season
7	Collaboration vs. Consensus Why is it a collaborative forecast versus a consensus forecast? Consensus: All participants agree upon the final product before it is issued Collaboration: AWC develops forecast, forecast is presented for comment, participants provide input, AWC Forecaster uses the input for the development of the final forecast
8	Collaboration vs. Consensus Continued Stakeholders agreed that collaborative decision making would be the most appropriate method for CCFP because of time constraints and in the case of disagreements, single accountability on the final forecast would be necessary.
9	Product Development AWC: Produces the initial forecast Produces the final forecast in a graphic format using input from the chat room session CWSU: Provide input on the forecast for their area of responsibility Airline: Provide input on the forecast for their area of responsibility
10	Chat Room Forecaster is not required to remain in the chat room. Participants are able to leave and return and are able to review new input and add additional input Forecasters should limit input to respective areas of responsibility All stakeholders agreed that the AWC forecaster is the final authority during collaboration
11	Production Cycle Changes Starting Monday July 1, 2002 at 1300 UTC, CCFP issuance frequency increase from four hour to two hour cycle Run as a series of operational evaluations Collaboration sessions are open for 30 minutes starting 45 minutes prior to posted issuance times
12	Production Cycle Changes Continued The collaboration sessions are no longer moderated by the AWC Forecaster, however, (s)he monitors and participates in the collaboration
13	Product Development Changes Continued After chat room closes (15 minutes before issue time) AWC completes the final graphic forecast AWC posts final graphic on website at published issue time
14	CCFP Timetable
15	Final Product 15 minutes before issue time AWC will close the chatroom and produce the final forecast This forecast will be posted on the Web for use by the Strategic Planning Team in the development of an operational plan for the NAS TFM END USERS ATCSCC Airline Dispatchers Airline AOC’s/ATC Coordinator’s Facility TMU’s
16	Convective Forecast Science Limitations of Convective forecasting Convective forecasting has limitations The science is limited to predicting the chance of convective activity in an area. It can not predict actual thunderstorm location and severity
17	Product Format Forecast convection with tops above 25,000 FT and areas of 25% or greater coverage Coverage within forecast areas are reported as: Low 25 to 49% (yellow) Med 50 to 74% (orange) High 75 to 100% (red)
18	Product Format Continued Low 25 to 49% - is an area of mostly scattered thunderstorms that are predicted to cover 25 to 49% of the area with possible lines. If the area is broad, it is possible to have several small lines without exceeding 49% coverage. Med 50 to 74% - and High 75 to 100% are areas where overall coverage is likely to exceed 50% that will include lines of storms, clusters and/or areas of major convection (frontal passage or tropical systems) Solid lines of convection would be depicted as a purple line
19	Product Format Continued Maximum tops within the forecast area are reported in the following three categories 25 – 31,000 feet 31 – 37,000 feet 37,000+ feet
20	Product Format Continued Growth rate ++ = Fast Positive Growth + = Moderate Positive Growth NC= No Change - = Negative Growth (area/tops decreasing) The expansion of the thunderstorms need to be considered as expanding in 3 dimensions This is an indicator of how the volume of denied airspace associated with the depicted forecast is likely to change with time
21	Product Format Continued Probability of convection within the area is identified as High, Medium, or Low Note: Forecasting is based on a probability. This feature is used by forecasters to tell how confident they are a region will develop. Generally, there will be a low level of confidence in the early morning forecast, while later in the day, as development has occurred and systems are generally known, the confidence will increase. Probability will also be determined from input during the forecast discussion.
22	CCFP Forecast from AWC Web Site
23	CCFP Forecast Graphic Colors are yellow (low coverage), orange (medium coverage), red (high coverage) and purple (lines) Colors are not correlated with video integrator processor (VIP) levels that are found in radar mosaics! Colors do not indicate intensity levels!
24	CCFP Scientific Verification To improve CCFP capabilities, convective forecasts need to be compared to actual weather conditions to assess accuracy Statistical results are computed by the Real-Time Verification System operated by the Forecast Systems Laboratory These results and further explanation can be found on the FSL website: http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/
25	Product Utilization CCFP is intended to be used by traffic planners in developing a coordinated strategic routing plan through areas of convective activity CCFP is intended to support strategic not tactical decision making Differences in traffic volume affect planning decisions
26	Product Utilization Continued Low probability of convection may be viewed as a tactical problem with “triggers” in the affected area Low coverage with high probabilities in some areas of the NAS may have limited impact and be a tactical problem. In other areas of the NAS low coverage may have a major impact on the system operation (for example, NY area vs. Midwest)
27	Summary Colors do not correlate to intensity levels CCFP is a strategic planning tool Regional differences in traffic density varies impacts of convective activity from place to place Please provide suggestions for improvement in feedback section on CCFP website and through CDM representatives
28	CCFP Web Locations AWC: http://cdm.awc-kc.noaa.gov/ccfp ATCSCC: http://www.fly.faa.gov/ Volpe: http://www.volpe.dot.gov/ Forecast Systems Lab: http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/